Pavel Gorin

Why supply chain volatility is the new normal and what it means for your small business

TLDR
Supply chain volatility, driven by globalization, geopolitics, climate change, and shifting consumer expectations, has become the new normal for businesses worldwide. Traditional efficiency-focused models no longer suffice, and organizations must prioritize resilience, visibility, and diversification to withstand constant disruptions. Companies that build adaptable, technology-enabled, and collaborative supply chains will not only survive uncertainty but also gain a competitive advantage.

Introduction

Over the last few years, businesses have faced constant supply chain challenges. From shortages of raw materials to shipping delays and unexpected price spikes, disruptions are no longer rare events. Instead, they have become a normal part of doing business.

For companies, the big question is no longer how to avoid volatility, but how to adapt to it. The answer is to build supply chains that are flexible, resilient, and ready for change.

Why supply chains are so unstable

Several forces are creating ongoing supply chain challenges:

  • Global connections. Products often depend on materials and parts from many different countries. A factory closure in Asia can delay production in Europe or North America.

  • Political tensions. Trade disputes, sanctions, and regional conflicts can disrupt supply lines overnight. For example, the war in Ukraine has affected energy and food markets worldwide.

  • Climate change. Severe weather events such as floods, fires, and hurricanes are hitting more often, damaging transport routes and slowing deliveries.

  • Pandemics. COVID-19 showed how quickly health crises can shut down factories, ports, and borders.

  • Customer expectations. Shoppers now expect fast, transparent, and reliable delivery. Meeting these demands becomes harder when supply is unpredictable.


Why resilience matters

In the past, many companies focused mainly on efficiency. They cut costs, reduced inventory, and used just-in-time systems. This worked well in stable times but left little room for error when things went wrong.

Today, resilience is more important. A resilient supply chain can absorb shocks, recover quickly, and continue serving customers. Companies that adapt faster than their competitors can protect trust, reduce losses, and even grow during tough times.

How small businesses can prepare

Companies cannot eliminate supply chain risks, but they can reduce the impact. Here are key strategies:

  1. Diversify suppliers. Relying on a single country or factory creates high risk. Companies are now spreading suppliers across multiple regions.

  2. Bring production closer. Nearshoring or reshoring can shorten shipping distances, cut delays, and reduce dependence on unstable regions.

  3. Improve visibility. Using digital tools to track shipments, inventory, and suppliers helps companies spot problems early and respond faster.

  4. Keep safety stock. Holding extra supplies of critical materials adds cost but provides a buffer against sudden shortages.

  5. Work closely with suppliers. Strong relationships and shared planning can make it easier to handle crises together.

  6. Plan for “what if” scenarios. Stress testing supply chains helps identify weak points and prepare backup strategies.

  7. Use technology and automation. Tools like predictive analytics, robotics, and AI can improve forecasting and flexibility.

  8. Build flexibility into teams. Companies need agile cultures where employees can adapt quickly to change.


Lessons from the pandemic

The pandemic made it clear that preparation matters. Automakers with only one chip supplier faced long delays, while those with multiple options recovered faster. Retailers with strong online systems kept sales going, while others struggled. Healthcare firms with better supply chain visibility secured critical supplies, while others were left empty-handed.

The new reality

Supply chain volatility is not going away. The focus must shift from avoiding risk to preparing for it. Businesses that balance efficiency with resilience, invest in technology, and build flexible partnerships will be better equipped to handle whatever comes next.

The most successful supply chains of the future will not necessarily be the cheapest. They will be the most adaptable.

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